Monday, June 27, 2005

Simulating Peak Oil

Green Car Congress has posted an overview of the Oil ShockWave scenario exercise in which "...a bipartisan panel of intelligence, military, and energy experts took part in a series of simulated Cabinet meetings over a projected seven-month period to advise the President on how to respond to disruptions in the global oil supply." The findings were shocking, and demonstrate the enormous impact even mild interruption in oil supply could produce. If you look at the findings regarding the preparations that could be taken to head off such a disruption, it seems pretty clear that demand side actions will have a more immediate impact; needless to say, our fearless leaders are focusing on the supply side of the equation. Of course, none of this attempts to predict the broad social and political ramifications of this -- human behavior is still the wild card.

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