The mix of success and failure in the future will probably look a lot like it has in the past, and that mix has produced a steady decrease in the amount of new oil we've discovered. There's no question that the prospect of permanently higher prices will spur both new development and increased use of technology, but when you put everything together, both good and bad, my guess is that new discoveries will continue to decline and oil production will reach its peak in about 10 years. At that point, new discoveries will no longer be big enough to offset declines in older fields.This is a fascinating read even if you're familiar with the basic concept of peak oil (which is all that I can claim), and required reading if you're new to the concept. Of course, as ProfGoose notes at The Oil Drum, we're still left empty-handed on definite action to take. My response to his frustration was that spreading the word may be the best we can do now. I don't think we can count on the politcal class to do much yet -- Roscoe Bartlett is likely a unique figure on Capitol Hill in his pressing of this issue. If we continue to promote the peak oil concept, we can (slowly) build demand for products and services that take peak oil into consideration. That's a start. I really do think that the business sector will have to "get it" before we can count on anything substantial happening in Washington. I'd love to be wrong, of course...
Technorati tags: peak oil, media, activism
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